The Blue Jays need Alejandro Kirk to turn six weeks into a full season

Kirk’s .560 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in April, jarring in another season, was par for the course in 2024. Kevin Kiermaier’s .505 OPS was lower while stars like George Springer (.586), Bo Bichette (.589) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.629) were on a similar level.

And Kirk was barely a factor in May. Danny Jansen’s hot start after returning from the injured list relegated Kirk to part-time duties. He started just eight games that month and, when his playing time increased in June, his performance was just as bad as it had been previously with a .561 OPS.

Since then, an improved version has surfaced. Kirk entered Wednesday night’s game against the Los Angeles Angels with a .305 average dating back to July 1, which trails only Guerrero’s .372 for Jays with at least 10 games played over that stretch. Kirk’s .738 OPS also ranks second over the same period, as does his 0.8 wins above replacement.

There’s still room for improvement. Kirk has one home run and four doubles since the start of July. A lack of power has been an ongoing issue dating back to 2023 when he finished the year with eight homers. He has just three this season and is on pace for a career low in doubles for a non-COVID season.

The Jays had been hoping to get more pop out of his bat, but even if Kirk never exceeds his career high of 14, he has value. While hitting .300 might be unrealistic, getting close to that threshold shouldn’t be. Kirk had a .285 average in 2022 and a well-above average .786 OPS.

Rediscovering some of that magic would provide the Jays with a much-needed boost because their other options behind the plate leave a lot to be desired. The trade of Jansen to the Boston Red Sox left a gaping hole at catcher and the prospect depth at the position has been non-existent in the upper levels of the minors since the 2023 trade of Gabriel Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Jays could and likely will make an attempt at bringing back Jansen this winter but successfully wooing the 29-year-old might be easier said than done. Jansen got off to a strong start with the Sox by hitting .368 with a pair of homers in seven games and he is expected to have plenty of suitors this winter. He’s not going to be cheap.

Beyond Jansen, Texas’s Carson Kelly and, to a lesser extent, Colorado’s Elias Diaz, there aren’t any starting calibre catchers available in free agency. Instead it’s the usual retread of veteran backups like Kyle Higashioka, Austin Barnes and James McCann, capable defenders who offer little with the bat.

Barring the return of Jansen, or an unexpected trade, Kirk is going to get all the playing time he can handle for the foreseeable future, whether he’s performing well or not. Current backup Brian Serven isn’t pushing him for additional reps and whoever comes in next year likely won’t either.

“I think it’s an opportunity for Kirky to take another step forward with his game,” Jays manager John Schneider recently said. “We like the way he’s swinging the bat right now, kind of the Kirky that we’ve grown to love, and it’s an opportunity for him to take charge of the pitching staff.”

The defensive side is where Kirk has been excelling for some time. He ranks near the top of almost every advanced metric at his position. According to data site Baseball Savant, Kirk sits in the 90th percentile of caught stealing above average, the 83rd percentile for pitch framing, and the 76th percentile for blocks above average.

Kirk’s lone defensive weak spot is a pop time — the time it takes to get up and make a throw — that ranks in the 16th percentile. Overall, the 25-year-old has been worth eight fielding runs, which is in the 92nd percentile. The defence at least partially offsets Kirk’s weaknesses with the bat and on the basepaths.

The first half of the year was a nightmare for Kirk and yet the second half has been fine. He still has a long way to go before tapping into the potential that saw him become an all-star in 2022, but if he’s able to take the last six weeks and spin it forward to next year, the Jays would happily take that, too.