Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight to face an Arizona Diamondbacks squad that he carved up earlier this season.
The pregame narrative: Wheeler, who has six-plus strikeouts in five consecutive starts, is the headliner for my prop bets in this late-night matchup. I’m also backing Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber in a plus-money parlay.
Check out my Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props for Aug. 9.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props
Best Bet: Wheeler over 5.5 Ks (-127)
Arizona is one of the most disciplined teams at the plate, which is why this line comes in so low. None of the past 10 starting pitchers to face the D-backs cleared this total, and that list includes Paul Skenes.
With that in mind, you might think I’d look to fade Wheeler at more enticing odds. But he’s already shown he can soar past 5.5 Ks against this team.
In June, Wheeler went 7.0 strong innings against the D-backs, allowing just one run on two hits while striking out eight. Against Arizona’s current lineup, the righty has 51 Ks over 181 plate appearances (good for a hearty 28.2% K rate).
Among his 22 starts this season, Wheeler has cashed this prop 15 times.
Again, Arizona is among the league’s best in terms of K rate, whiff rate and chase rate — ranking sixth-best or better in each of those categories. So this one could be a bit of a sweat.
But Wheeler has demonstrated — against Arizona in particular and the league at large — that he’s capable of clearing this total.
Key stat: Wheeler has 148 strikeouts over 22 starts (6.7 Ks per outing).
Quick pick
Parlay: Bell, Schwarber 1+ hits each (+132): One player who wasn’t on the D-backs the last time they faced Wheeler is Bell, who has some impressive numbers in this head-to-head matchup.
Bell, who has seen Wheeler more than twice as many times as any of his teammates, is 13-for-43 (.302) off the right-hander with four homers and two doubles.
In his past 14 games, Bell is batting .333 and has cashed this prop 11 times. He already has three multi-hit games in seven appearances for Arizona.
But if Bell is heating up, Schwarber is already scorching.
Philadelphia’s leadoff man has clubbed eight hits over his past three games — and six of them went for extra bases. He’s now 15-for-32 (.469) during an eight-game hit streak.
Schwarber, a lefty hitter, has reverse splits that don’t work in his favour against right-hander Ryne Nelson. But I still don’t think a single hit is too much to ask of the designated hitter.
MLB picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET 08/09/2024.
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