One spread, one team total, and one player prop make up today’s MLB parlay picks.
The pregame narrative: The New York Yankees take on the Chicago White Sox in what should be a one-sided affair. Elsewhere, I like Freddy Peralta to clear an alternate stirkeout total and the San Diego Padres to have a big night offensively.
Parlay: Yankees -1.5 + Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts + Padres over 4.5 runs (+380)
Yankees -1.5 (-190): The fact that New York is -190 to cover the run line tells you everything about how Chicago’s season is going.
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The White Sox are a league-worst 28-91 and are 1-24 in their last 25 games.
During that stretch they’ve been outscored by 87 runs and are 8-17 against a +1.5 run line. The only thing that stopped Chicago from holding the longest losing streak in MLB history was a 5-1 win over the lowly Oakland Athletics.
So yeah, New York should crush Chicago tonight.
The Yankees have Luis Gil pitching (3.06 ERA) and the second-best offence in baseball (5.06 runs/game).
Milwaukee’s righty gives up a decent amount of hard contact but he also misses a lot of bats. Peralta’s 31.8% whiff rate and 29.4% K rate rank in the 91st and 90th percentile at Baseball Savant.
Los Angeles has the third highest K rate agianst right-handed pitchers since the all-star break (26.4%).
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Peralta has cleared this line in eight of his last 10 games and four of his last five.
Gonzales carries a 4.54 ERA into tonight’s contest and has gotten rocked in back-to-back outings. His last start was against the Padres in Pittsburgh and he ceded eight hits and five earned runs in 4.2 IP.
It’s been a rough go and the advanced stats paint an even worse picture. The lefty ranks in the first percentile for xBA (.314) and xERA (6.75).
San Diego’s lineup is 23-for-75 (.307) against the lefty with a .507 SLG in 83 plate apperances.
