Don’t like Justin Trudeau? You’re not alone. Here’s why Canadians say the prime minister is so unpopular

What’s less examined is the cause of that unpopularity. When voters are registering all those negative impressions with the pollsters, what exactly is it that is turning them off Trudeau?

So Abacus Data, in its latest round of polling for the Star, took on that question. It’s not the first time Abacus has probed on this issue for the Star — back in the spring of 2023, we wanted to know whether Trudeau’s unpopularity was more rampant among male voters.

“Yes,” was the answer back then. Today, that gender disparity has mostly disappeared. “Men and women now feel pretty much the same about Trudeau,” Abacus CEO David Coletto says (and he doesn’t mean this in a good way).

Abacus has been regularly tracking how all leaders, Trudeau especially, is tracking with positive and negative impressions. Negative impressions of the prime minister have been steadily escalating over the past couple of years — from 44 per cent in 2022 to 59 per cent today.

But in this poll, Abacus attempted to break down where that antipathy was rooted — particularly whether it was based on something Trudeau has done (or not done) or whether it’s just simply who he is.

The poll was conducted online with 2,000 Canadian adults from July 16 to 22 and the results are interesting. (The poll can’t be assigned a margin of error because Abacus uses online opt-in panels that can’t be considered truly random. In a comparable probability-based poll of the same size, the margin of error would be within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

The top two reasons cited for negative impressions of Trudeau were disappointment in what he’s done, with 59 per cent calling that the top reason, and his management of the federal budget, with 55 per cent saying that was the major reason they didn’t hold Trudeau in high esteem.

“I think the biggest takeaway is that this may not be as personal as we assume,” Coletto said.

“The main reasons people are unhappy with Trudeau are the ones that are hurting incumbents everywhere — more than eight years in office, plus tough economic conditions equals a desire for change.”

Some of the reasons cited, however, did go to Trudeau as a person. Of those with negative impressions of Trudeau, 77 per cent cited his weakness as a leader and 66 per cent said they were simply tired of him.

Abacus did, in fact, ask respondents whether they just didn’t like Trudeau personally and that racked up the lowest number of people who cited it as one of their top reasons — about 47 per cent in total of those were not wild about Trudeau. But then again, does anyone say their political beliefs are rooted in personal animosity?

The distinction between personal and policy opposition is important. Presumably, if Trudeau is doing something that turns people off, he could stop doing it or change course. But if voters are simply tired of him or don’t like who he is, that’s a huge, if not impossible hurdle to leap.

“How he gets the public to reorient itself to see him as a positive force will be really tough in this environment,” Coletto says. “This is unlike what he faced in 2021.”

In all, Abacus offered respondents a choice of 11 ways to describe why they were rating Trudeau so negatively. On top of the ones already cited, they included his foreign, social and climate policies, a sense that he’s “out of touch,” or the regard in which he is held by other world leaders.

Most of us by now have sat round dinner tables or had conversations with friends that touch on Trudeau’s unpopularity and know how the tone can get white hot. Anecdotally speaking, most of us are aware that people who don’t like Trudeau really don’t like him. (This is especially evident if you are a journalist and write anything neutral, or heaven forbid, slightly positive about the PM. The letters speak for themselves.)

Coletto maintains this poll is not a gauge of white-hot rage, but instead, something else.

“For some, it’s about disappointment. That’s not necessarily hate,” he says. Many point to how he’s managed the budget, which I find really interesting. He’s seen as out of touch, his economic policies aren’t liked, he’s weak, and almost half say being tired of him is a top reason.”

So is there any thin reed of hope for Trudeau to climb out of this unpopularity? One notable finding stands out, among voters who told Abacus they might consider abandoning the party they currently support to cast a ballot for the Liberals. (By Abacus’ tally, this is a slim section of the electorate, about seven per cent of the total population.)

Abacus asked these respondents whether there was any scenario in which they would vote for a Trudeau-led Liberal party. The number one reason cited was Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives doing something that makes people “really uncomfortable” with the prospect of them in government. About one quarter of these open-to-change voters gave that reason; another one quarter cited better economic conditions.

These are, in fact, where Liberal hopes are pinned right now — that once things improve economically and people get a closer look at Poilievre, they’ll drift back to Trudeau’s team. Incidentally, only 10 per cent of this crowd said a Donald Trump victory might influence them to take another look at Trudeau.

As Coletto sees it, this all circles back to the reality that Trudeau’s unpopularity is more chronic than a fleeting trouble — a feature, not a bug.

“The path back for the Liberals isn’t easy or obvious, but as long as Trudeau is leader — the party’s fortunes will likely rise and fall based on how people feel about him.”