Brandon Aiyuk and the 49ers need each other for a Super Bowl: Analysis

Matthew Judon wanted a new contract and ended up on a new team with a better chance of winning.

Brandon Aiyuk isn’t in a similar situation.

Aiyuk has been holding-in with the San Francisco 49ers, waiting for a lucrative deal or a trade. If the star wide receiver goes somewhere else — the Steelers appear to be the top option — his chances of winning a Super Bowl decrease.

Judon, the four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher, was traded from New England to Atlanta on Wednesday. He went from a rebuilding team expected to finish last in the AFC East to a revamped Falcons squad that can win the NFC South.

The 49ers came close to hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy last season before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime. They’re favorites to win the NFC, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.

So, going anywhere other than Kansas City is a downgrade for Aiyuk and the Chiefs aren’t in position to make this type of blockbuster.

Aiyuk isn’t the only big-time receiver mired in a contract dispute. All-Pro CeeDee Lamb is holding out from Dallas and Ja’Marr Chase is a hold-in with Cincinnati.

The 49ers have an even more pressing contract stalemate. Three-time All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams is holding out and they need him to protect Brock Purdy’s blind side.

Overall, the 49ers are loaded with offensive talent led by All-Pros Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle and do-it-all wideout Deebo Samuel.

Still, Aiyuk is an integral part of a dynamic attack. The 2020 first-round pick has thrived in San Francisco’s offense since Purdy became the starting quarterback. He has eight 100-yard receiving games in 26 games catching passes from Purdy. Aiyuk had three 100-yard receiving games in 45 games with other QBs.

First-round pick Ricky Pearsall was drafted to potentially replace Aiyuk, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy in training camp.

While Williams isn’t going anywhere, Aiyuk’s future in San Francisco is more uncertain. NFL Network reported this week that the 49ers and Steelers have agreed on compensation for a trade. The only thing holding up a deal is the fact general manager John Lynch, coach Kyle Shanahan and everyone else in San Francisco know the 49ers are a better team right now with Aiyuk.

“Brandon is a great player, so it’s real hard to be better when you lose a great player,” Shanahan said last week. “So we have to look into anything, we have to understand the situation we’re in, what that looks like. And that does take time. So hopefully it’ll all work out best for him and best for us in the long run.”

Aiyuk is slated to earn $14.1 million this season on his fifth-year option. He’s watched 10 receivers sign contracts worth at least $70 million this offseason led by Justin Jefferson’s four-year, $140 million extension.

A total of 25 receivers have an average annual salary of at least $15 million with 21 making $20 million or more.

Aiyuk was a second-team All-Pro last season when he had 75 catches for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns. Based on his production, he’d be underpaid this season if he doesn’t get a raise.

Judon was willing to play out the final year of his contract with the Patriots but still got traded anyway. Players handle contract issues in different ways. The 49ers may be gambling that Aiyuk is going to eventually show up to avoid losing salary. Former Steelers star running back Le’Veon Bell sat out the entire 2018 season because he didn’t want to play on a franchise tag. He went to the Jets in 2019 and was never the same player, lasting just two more seasons.

“You’re always disappointed when you can’t keep a hold of all your players or it’s not going exactly right,” Shanahan said about Aiyuk last week. “I don’t like losing anybody. That’s why I’m hoping it does work out here. But right now, we don’t have that solved yet. I hope it does.”

The 49ers and Aiyuk need each other.

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